It’s never easy to see into the future and predict the forces that may influence the real estate market. Having said that, my years in this business has given me an invaluable perspective. Following are my thought on what we may in for next year.

A more balanced market

After several years of red-hot demand, Calgary’s housing market appears to be shifting toward a more balanced, and stable, phase in 2026. This is after strong growth through 2024 and early 2025. Indeed, despite rising inventory levels and a growing supply of new homes, city-wide home prices are expected to remain relatively steady in 2026 rather than continue sky-rocketing.

Therefore, for prospective buyers and sellers, 2026 may represent a calmer, less frenzied phase with fewer bidding wars, more realistic pricing and greater chances for negotiation.

Detached and semi-detached homes maintain their strength

Detached and semi-detached homes in Calgary seem best positioned for stability or modest appreciation. Many analysts forecast that these types of homes will continue to see demand in 2026. This is thanks to their appeal to families, people relocating from other provinces and those leaving the rental market.

In particular, suburban neighbourhoods and well-located communities on the periphery of the city may benefit from this demand, since some buyers are prioritizing affordability and space over living near the city centre.

Continued demand driven by migration and the economy

Calgary is still attracting a healthy amount of inter-provincial migration, a key factor sustaining demand for both ownership and rental housing. Combined with a diversified economy (not just energy, but growing tech, finance and service sectors), this increases resilience against shocks to any single industry, giving many buyers and investors confidence going into 2026.

Pressure on high-density and rental housing

While detached homes may fare well, the outlook for high-density housing ─ condos, apartments, townhomes ─ is more mixed. A surge in new construction, particularly purpose-built rentals and condominium projects, has flooded the market in recent years. As a result, vacancy rates, which were historically low, have climbed sharply. For instance, rental vacancy rose from as low as 1.4% in 2023 to 4.6% in 2024.

This oversupply could continue to weigh on resale and rental pricing for apartments/condos in 2026. Some forecasts expect only modest price growth ─ or even softening ─ in these areas, especially where supply is concentrated or neighbourhood demand is weaker.

Renters, investors and the rental market outlook

Because of rising vacancy rates and increased rental supply, the rental market is likely to remain soft through 2025 and into 2026. This is especially important for investors in large apartment buildings or condos where it may take longer to achieve strong returns, unless properties are located in high-demand neighbourhoods.

Key risks and what could disrupt the forecast

Here’s what might change the forecast:

• Supply surge outpacing demand ─ The wave of new housing completions — especially condos, apartments, and purpose-built rentals — could oversaturate the market if migration slows or economic conditions weaken. 
• Economic volatility ─ As an Alberta city, Calgary remains somewhat tied to fluctuations in energy markets. A downturn in global energy prices or a slowdown in resource-related jobs could undermine buyer confidence. 
• Interest rate swings ─ Mortgage affordability remains a critical factor; should interest rates climb again, many prospective buyers (especially first-time buyers) might be priced out, cooling demand.

What 2026 might mean for different types of buyers

• First-time buyers or families seeking detached homes — 2026 could offer buying opportunities with less competition than a couple of years ago, and markets stabilizing without dramatic price jumps.
• Downsizers, retirees, or “move-up” buyers — Detached or semi-detached homes remain attractive, especially in suburban or family-friendly areas.
• Investors focusing on apartments/condos — Might need to be more cautious or selective as success will likely depend heavily on location, quality and timing, given oversupply and rental softness.
• Renters seeking apartments/condos — Could benefit from more choices, possibly cheaper rents or better lease conditions, especially outside the most in-demand neighbourhoods.

In closing

In short, 2026 looks to be a year of consolidation for Calgary’s real estate market. The red-hot growth a few years ago seems to be cooling, but the outlook is not gloomy. Instead, expect a steady, balanced market. Remember, whether you’re buying or selling, I’m happy to offer my services.